mosca oliva                                                               
                                                                                                  
 
G. GILIOLI, S. PASQUALI

Use of individual-based models for population parameters estimation

Ecological Modelling 200, 109-118 (2007).
A method for parameters estimation of stage-specific mortality and fecundity rate functions in poikilotherm organisms, and in particular for arthropod structured population, is proposed. The application of this method requires three type of information: stage-frequency data of a sampled population, development rate function and time evolution of forcing variables affecting the rate functions. By means of an individual-based model (a microscopic model) the number of eggs produced by the adults is generated starting from the number of individuals collected at each sampling time. Using a compartmental model (a macroscopic model) a stage-structured population dynamics is described and compared with observations. Nonlinear regression methods based on least square principle are used to estimate the optimal parameters of the mortality and fecundity rate functions combining microscopic and macroscopic models. As a case study, the parameter estimation of the temperature-dependent mortality function of olives fruit fly Bactrocera oleae is presented.





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